Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency triggered by the introduction of a new comprehensive peace framework for resolving the conflict appeared – temporarily – to have been defused. A senior US official spoke of "notable headway" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its countermove: an extensive attack of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Diplomacy and Destruction
The succession of contrasting events captured the bleak nature of the current period. By day, political struggles are waged: optimistic declarations are released from various governments. Considerable effort is allocated on containing particular approaches. By night, Moscow forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the main instrument for achieving "resolution".
After-Dark Attacks
As the offensive unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's exposure was revealed. Ukraine is able to track rocket firings from across the border, a capability enabled by timely intelligence. From witness perspectives, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been scrambled to counter approaching cruise missiles roared overhead – sophisticated military planes provided to Ukraine by NATO members.
Moments later, Kyiv's air-defence systems activated: multiple launches targeted at a hostile projectile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, probably delivered by partner states. Every launch shakes the surroundings, causing tremors. The instant of fear quickly gives way to grim resignation: possibly the hostile projectile won't hit its mark this time, protecting urban areas from ruin and further power outages.
Ongoing Risks
Following this, a heavy machine gun opened up on a drone in the vicinity, part of a defensive team – probably allied-provided weaponry. Sadly, the bullets missed the opposing UAV – it maintained course toward its destination.
Intermittently, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the morning news: seven people killed, devastation and utility failures in many homes as a result of the night's assault. As customarily, everyone still went about their day – enduring hostilities. But those full day demonstrated Ukraine's essential dependence on Western support – a need that neighboring countries are demonstrably unable to replace in the short term.
Failed Diplomacy
The 28-point plan from Washington generated strong feelings, debate and deep concern – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after earlier high-level meetings and bilateral conferences.
Every new approach from American administration unfolds according to the same pattern: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, effectively counters. They stabilise the situation but never actually win the battle. This trend will, certainly, persist.
Political Considerations
It is easy to blame specific actors of consistently pushing Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. Washington functions according to a principle understood by international relations experts: you cannot secure via talks what you have lost on the battlefield. The American government believes that it is impossible to compel Moscow to abandon the land that it currently occupies in Ukraine's south or east.
The issue is that while recognising this factual reality, US leadership does nothing to discourage Russia, through words or deeds, from believing that the situation will not change more in its advantage in the coming year.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, the Kremlin is confident that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its supporters are nearing depletion. Their motivation to accept conditions that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is virtually nonexistent. There may be numerous efforts to end hostilities, but they will continue as long as Russia's leadership remains completely certain in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still endure, slowly losing lives and land but preventing a entire defensive failure until situations evolve in its benefit.
Existing Situation
Factually, there are no actual prerequisites for a ceasefire. Now, subjective factors are entering the equation: leadership ambitions to broker a ceasefire and achieve global acclaim, and Ukrainian leadership's twin challenges – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the country's interests against any proposal Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their priority does not move to homefront challenges. And although their task will now be significantly challenging after latest incidents, it remains quite doubtful that this will modify their basic position.
These conflicting dynamics are influencing discussions.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a mere seven days to terminate the 28 points of the latest plan. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by US administration, resistance by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with pacifying measures of representatives, and finally, current information leaks, all did their job.
While new initiatives based on old ideas are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist negotiation assaults from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and show specific hesitation to alter the situation, if they maintain solidarity and enhance their military capacity at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to repel nightly air assaults will, for the predictable period, mainly require ongoing international assistance.
